China’s Trade Surplus Surges Past $1 Trillion as November Exports Rebound Strongly

China’s Trade Surplus Surges Past $1 Trillion as November Exports Rebound Strongly

China’s trade surplus has soared to a historic milestone, surpassing $1 trillion for the first time, driven by a sharp rebound in exports during November. The latest customs data highlights a significant improvement in China’s external demand, providing a major boost to the country’s economic outlook as it aims for its growth target of around 5% this year.

According to official figures released Monday, China’s exports rose 5.9% year-on-year in November, reversing an unexpected contraction recorded the previous month. Imports also grew, though more modestly, increasing by just under 2%. The strong export performance pushed China’s monthly shipments to $330.3 billion, exceeding economists’ expectations, while imports reached $218.6 billion.

Despite this global rebound, shipments to the United States fell sharply—nearly 29% year-on-year. With U.S. demand weakening, China continues to diversify its export destinations across Southeast Asia, Africa, Europe, and Latin America. Economists note that this strategy has helped stabilize China’s trade surplus even amid geopolitical uncertainty.

For the first 11 months of the year, China accumulated a record $1.08 trillion trade surplus, surpassing the entire surplus of 2024, which totaled $992 billion according to FactSet data. This surge coincides with a year-long trade truce reached in late October between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Under the agreement, the U.S. reduced tariffs on Chinese goods, while China pledged to halt export controls on rare earth materials.

Economists believe that November’s export improvement may only be the beginning. According to ING Bank’s chief economist for Greater China, Lynn Song, the full effects of the tariff cuts have not yet been reflected and may drive even stronger export numbers in the coming months.

Still, challenges remain. China’s factory activity contracted for the eighth consecutive month in November, raising questions about the durability of the export recovery. Analysts say it is too early to determine whether the recent rebound indicates a sustained rise in global demand.

Chinese leaders continue to place strategic emphasis on developing advanced manufacturing and boosting domestic consumption—two goals highlighted during high-level meetings held this autumn. A Politburo session led by President Xi on Monday reaffirmed a focus on “ensuring stability while pursuing progress” as China maps out its 2026 economic plans.

Businesses and investors are now awaiting China’s annual Central Economic Work Conference, expected later this month, which will reveal more detailed economic priorities for the coming year.

Long-term forecasts remain optimistic. BNP Paribas and Morgan Stanley analysts expect China to keep expanding its global export share, especially in high-growth industries such as electric vehicles, robotics, batteries, and other advanced manufacturing sectors. Morgan Stanley projects that China’s global export share could rise to 16.5% by 2030, reinforcing its competitive edge despite ongoing geopolitical tensions.